All the signs are here. Iran-backed Houthi pirates are shutting down shipping lanes. The U.S. allowed an American journalist critical of war policy to die in a Ukrainian prison. People are taking sides for or against Israel. The Chinese Communist Party is poised to invade Taiwan using missiles purchased from North Korea. These events and others are rapidly dragging the U.S. into a geographical and potentially global conflict.
At the same time schoolgirls are gushing over good-looking terrorists posting videos of seized cargo ships on Tik Tok and Ivy League presidents need context before they condemn genocide. Meanwhile the military is woefully unprepared and understaffed, facing shortages of both ammunition and personnel. Many service people were discharged because they refused to be vaccinated. Perhaps the U.S. could draft the 11.4 million immigrants who now reside here? (Pew Research Center).
It gets worse. The U.S. is 34 trillion in debt with an annual deficit of over a trillion dollars (US Treasury). We can’t afford a war, let alone one on multiple fronts. The fighting age population is a mess with a third of adults aged 18 to 49 years reporting some form of mental illness (NIH). Illicit drug use is prevalent throughout the U.S. with states reporting usage of 10 to 20 percent of the population. Polls in 2023 indicated that only 20-40% of the people in the U.S. would be willing to fight for it. Confidence in the U.S. military dropped to roughly 60%, which represented the lowest since 1997 and the sixth consecutive year of decline (American Military News).
Jeffery Tucker opined that “Every war is preceded by a period of demoralization (I don’t matter), demotivation (there is nothing I can do), and dehumanization (those people are not worth saving). From there it is a simple matter of flipping the switch.” Barbara F. Walter during an insightful TED talk on civil war cited two predictors that lead to conflict. The first predictor is living in a country that is neither a democracy nor autocracy. The second is having political parties that vote based on identity and identity politics.
One does not have to look very far to see that these conditions are already in place or are developing. The pandemic demonstrated that many are unwilling to defend themselves against incremental loss of liberties. Let’s hope our captors are benevolent beings.
Perhaps the best rationale for a coming war came from Tucker Carlson who stated that the current administration of both political parties are seeking war. Might this be to cover up and distract voters from their incompetence? Coupled with a 2024 election, which is not looking promising for the Democrats, a war might also be sufficient to declare a state of emergency and suspend elections. Alternatively, voters might decide not to change leadership during war time, provided there is a perception that we could win, or are winning. Korea and Vietnam were not kind to incumbents.
It also seems the media is eager to fan the flames of war, stretching the truth as needed, to increase ratings and marginalize those they hate. Conflict is good for headlines until it becomes normalized. Having media support is critical for governments to maintain public support for continued financing and the sacrifice of its youth. The posting of graphic images and video to social media helped Hamas to incite further violence from other terrorist groups and rally opposition from a few Western countries. The specter of war can both demoralize and inflame individuals to act in ways that both unify and divide. War is always more glamourous before it starts. In this current situation and point in history, it would be wise to be prepared rather than ignorant. And of course, know who you can trust.
Mark Doggett, PHD
About Mark
Education: Doctorate at Colorado State University Interdisciplinary Studies with B.S. and M.S. degrees in Industrial Technology from California State University Fresno.
Mark has twenty years of experience in higher education with thirteen years as a full-time educator. Twenty years of experience in business and industry including defense aerospace, food and beverage manufacturing, farm and irrigation products.
To contact Mark, email mark.doggett@wku.edu.